Missing the Obvious

A whole book was written about so-called Black Swan events—blindsides that no one saw coming. Its message: “Besides anticipating the obvious, be prepared for things you never dreamed could possibly happen.” Real-world examples: The Japan and Indonesia quakes and tsunamis. The fiscal meltdown that caught Euro countries with their balance sheets in tatters. The cloud. Facebook’s dominance of social networking. And the list goes on.

Unanticipated events, challenges, and their consequences roil our everyday lives. Yet we are inexplicably blind to real threats to our ventures and livelihoods. In last week’s news headlines, we learn that Eastman Kodak, once a Fortune 10 market leader, fully anticipated the impact of digital imaging on its core business 20 or so years before the threat came to pass, yet failed to respond and adapt with meaningful change. It just filed for bankruptcy protection. Why?

A core reason is the inability to hear the market through the cone of silence and positive affirmation we managers erect in our leadership team, advisors, and company cultures. As founders of early startups frequently realize too late, the blind 500-lb. gorilla that is ignoring our market can suddenly surprise us with an overwhelming rifle-shot focused on our opportunity. Conversely, we fail to see, hear and anticipate what the consumers’ fickle tastes now want, what our key competitors are doing to thwart our expectations, or how business conditions have changed since we first hatched our ideas. We are too deep in our code, too busy crafting the perfect elevator pitch, too oblivious to early customer feedback, too blind to pivot when we desperately need to do so.

Looking over the horizon is an acquired skill. It’s not reading tea leaves, gazing at crystals, or reading the Tarot. It’s a never-ending quest to listen to and evaluate the views of those outside your inner circle, spanning wide ranges of expertise, skillsets, and subject areas tangental to your core interests. If you have your head down working in network infrastructure, you may be surprised to learn about developments in intellectual property or nano science that will rock your boat. If you have a shallow network, it’s a cinch that you’ll only be able to predict within a narrow window of perspective.

So what advice can I share? Take advantage of those panel discussions, meetups, networking events, beer-and-bull…. sessions—they’re held nearly every night of the week somewhere close to where you work, live, or commute. They are mainly low-cost, and they’re extremely valuable even if you only make a single new contact or hear a lone piece of information that fits into your picture. In many cases, you’ll gain several. And don’t limit your participation to groups in your narrow focus area. Take advantage of the opportunity to intersect your focus with other elements of the marketplace and triangulate to see possible paths the future might take. Then test your hypotheses by asking your network what they think. Build strengths on strengths.

Sure, you may be trying to finish your beta and pulling 18-hour days-nights. Or, you may be watching your run rate converge with your bank account hitting zero and trying desperately to raise a new round. How can you take time away from those things to rub elbows in a noisy bar or meeting room with a bunch of people interested in something you know nothing about? Well, ignore the advice at your own peril.

Whatever you are doing, look up, look out, and listen. There’s no need to be blindsided roadkill. You have a wide circle of advisors to expand your ability to see your possible futures from your single pair of eyes to their many. Ask.

Bob Dolezal—Consultiq’s CEO

Robert

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