A whole book was written about so-called Black Swan events—blindsides that no one saw coming. Its message: “Besides anticipating the obvious, be prepared for things you never dreamed could possibly happen.” Real-world examples: The Japan and Indonesia quakes and tsunamis. The fiscal meltdown that caught Euro countries with their balance sheets in tatters. The cloud. [...]

Venture capital funds are on an unsustainable path. In the past two years, venture capital funds invested US$24 billion more than they raised in new funding. In 2010 alone, they invested $26 billion against raises of $14 billion, nearly a 2X deficit. Contrast this with IPO statistics: in 2011, approximately 50 VC-backed firms went public [...]

Nothing is in shorter supply than time for an early-stage startup except money. Yet, often I see teams distracted from getting their product or service to the market as they enter an all-consuming focus on raising capital long before their venture has a value proposition investors can accept. Take last week, for instance. I spoke to a [...]